We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -1. A price movement of 256 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Apr 11:30	10 Mar 12:00
28 Jan 11:30	08 Oct 11:30
10 Sep 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).