We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -0.3%. A price movement of 58 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Nov 00:30	14 Aug 22:30
15 May 22:30	17 Mar 23:30
14 Dec 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).