We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 1.1%. A price movement of 103 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jul 22:30

16 Jun 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).