We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 23. A price movement of 34 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Apr 22:30	18 Mar 23:30
19 Feb 00:30	20 Nov 00:30
15 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).