GBPUSD may trend downwards right now

We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < -0.5%. A price movement of 41 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jan 13:30
16 Dec 13:30
16 Sep 12:30
14 Aug 12:30
15 May 12:30
17 Mar 12:30