We expect USDJPY to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is > €8.6B. A price movement of 47 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Nov 18:00	03 Aug 16:00
04 May 16:00	04 Apr 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).