We expect AUDUSD to trend downwards for the next 4 hours. Based on these past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect this to happen because the released value is < ¥-1509.7B. A price movement of 20 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jun 09:50	20 Apr 09:50
16 Mar 10:50	17 Feb 10:50
20 Oct 10:50	16 Jun 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).