Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥-3871.5B. A price movement of 22 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

19 Jan 10:50	20 Oct 10:50
19 May 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).