Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in Australia, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > 16.3%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Jun 11:30	06 May 11:30
11 Jan 11:30	02 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).