We expect a $4,380 movement on GBPUSD within 48 hours following the release of Balance of Trade at 19 Aug 09:50. We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 19 Aug 09:50 if the released value is > ¥-77.6B. A price movement of 438 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jun 09:50	18 Mar 10:50
19 Feb 10:50	18 Dec 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).