We expect NZDUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < A$7.9B. A price movement of 16 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 May 11:30	01 Apr 11:30
06 Oct 11:30	03 Sep 11:30
04 Aug 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).