Based on past Australia Balance of Trade news events there is a 83.33% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > A$ 4.4B. A price movement of 77 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Dec 11:30	05 Nov 11:30
04 Jun 11:30	07 Apr 11:30
05 Mar 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).