Trade with an edge around todays Australia NAB Business Confidence news event

Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 75% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 19. A price movement of 16 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 May 01:30
09 Mar 00:30
09 Feb 00:30
10 Nov 00:30
05 Oct 00:30
14 Jul 01:30