Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 71.43% chance of GBPUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > -13. A price movement of 25 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 11:30	09 Feb 11:30
08 Dec 11:30	10 Nov 11:30
05 Oct 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).