Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 83.33% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 2. A price movement of 22 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

25 Jan 11:30	10 Aug 11:30
13 Jul 11:30	08 Jun 11:30
13 Apr 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).