Based on past Australia NAB Business Confidence news events there is a 83.33% chance of EURUSD trending downwards. A price movement of 49 could occur if the released value is < 12. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

10 May 11:30	25 Jan 11:30
10 Aug 11:30	13 Jul 11:30
08 Jun 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).