Based on past Australia Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 66.67% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -4.2%. A price movement of 43 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Mar 11:30	06 Feb 11:30
05 Dec 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).