Based on past Australia Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 87.5% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > -2.7%. A price movement of 124 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Feb 11:30	04 Nov 11:30
02 Oct 11:30	04 Aug 11:30
03 Jul 11:30	04 Jun 11:30
06 May 11:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).