Based on past Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 72.73% chance of USDJPY trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 16 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Apr 00:00	31 Oct 01:00
11 Jul 00:00	30 May 00:00
07 Mar 02:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).