Based on past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 77.78% chance of USDCAD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > €22B. A price movement of 69 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 18:00	09 Dec 18:00
10 Oct 17:00	09 Sep 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).