Based on past Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news events there is a 80% chance of AUDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 41.5. A price movement of 43 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 May 17:30	16 Dec 19:30
24 Oct 18:30	24 Jul 17:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).