Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 83.33% chance of NZDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > ¥202.3B. A price movement of 58 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 May 09:50	19 Apr 09:50
18 Nov 10:50	16 Sep 09:50
19 Aug 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).