Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of EURUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > ¥-1694.9B. A price movement of 18 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Dec 10:50	18 Sep 09:50
19 Jun 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).