Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 80% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < ¥420B. A price movement of 11 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Jan 10:50	20 Nov 10:50
19 Aug 09:50	22 May 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).