Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of USDCAD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥989.8B. A price movement of 20 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Sep 09:50	18 Mar 10:50
19 Feb 10:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).