Based on past Japan Consumer Confidence news events there is a 66.67% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 34.8. A price movement of 26 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 May 15:00	30 Apr 15:00
03 Mar 16:00	29 Jan 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).