Based on past Japan Consumer Confidence news events there is a 71.43% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 39.5. A price movement of 135 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Oct 16:00	30 Jun 15:00
31 May 15:00	08 Apr 15:00
04 Mar 16:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).