Based on past Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index news events there is a 66.67% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. A price movement of 21 could occur if the released value is < 13. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Dec 10:50	01 Jul 09:50
13 Dec 10:50	01 Jul 09:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).