Based on past Japan Unemployment Rate news events there is a 83.33% chance of EURUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 2.4%. A price movement of 15 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

31 Jan 10:30	01 Oct 09:30
30 Aug 09:30	30 Jul 09:30
29 Mar 10:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).