Based on past United Kingdom Claimant Count Change news events there is a 71.43% chance of GBPUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 50K. A price movement of 600 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Oct 17:00	16 Jul 16:00
21 Apr 16:00	17 Mar 20:30
18 Feb 20:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).