Based on past United States Balance of Trade news events there is a 85.71% chance of AUDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < $-70.5B. A price movement of 35 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Aug 22:30	07 Apr 22:30
06 Mar 00:30	06 Feb 00:30
05 Nov 00:30	06 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).