Trade with an edge around todays United States Balance of Trade news event

Based on past United States Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is < $-87.1B. A price movement of 13 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Jan 13:30
04 Nov 12:30
05 Oct 12:30
05 Aug 12:30
07 Apr 12:30