Based on past United States Balance of Trade news events there is a 71.43% chance of NZDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < $-88.5B. A price movement of 44 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Mar 00:30	07 Jan 00:30
08 Dec 00:30	04 Nov 23:30
07 Apr 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).