Based on past United States Durable Goods Orders MoM news events there is a 87.5% chance of USDCAD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > -1.5%. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Jan 00:30	27 Sep 22:30
26 Aug 22:30	25 Apr 22:30
13 Mar 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).