Trade with an edge around todays United States Housing Starts news event

Based on past United States Housing Starts news events there is a 85.71% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 1.568M. A price movement of 45 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Nov 13:30
19 Oct 12:30
18 Aug 12:30
16 Jun 12:30
18 May 12:30
18 Feb 13:30