Trade with an edge around todays United States Housing Starts news event

Based on past United States Housing Starts news events there is a 80% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 1.613M. A price movement of 11 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Jan 13:30
17 Dec 13:30
18 Aug 12:30
17 Jul 12:30