Based on past United States ISM Manufacturing PMI news events there is a 80% chance of USDJPY trending downwards. A price movement of 37 could occur if the released value is < 57.6. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Apr 01:00	05 Jan 02:00
03 Aug 00:00	04 May 00:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).