Based on past United States Non Farm Payrolls news events there is a 66.67% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 490K. A price movement of 67 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Nov 23:30	02 Jul 22:30
02 Apr 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).