Based on past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 66.67% chance of USDJPY trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > 22. A price movement of 12 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jul 22:30	18 Jun 22:30
21 Feb 00:30	22 Nov 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).