Based on past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 75% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 28. A price movement of 16 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 May 22:30	18 Dec 00:30
20 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).