Based on past United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index news events there is a 83.33% chance of USDJPY trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 20. A price movement of 39 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Dec 00:30	21 Oct 23:30
15 Jul 22:30	17 Jun 22:30
20 May 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).