Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of NZDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -8%. A price movement of 285 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Mar 23:30	14 Dec 00:30
14 Jun 22:30	15 May 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).