Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 75% chance of USDJPY trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > -0.8%. A price movement of 24 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jul 22:30	15 Apr 22:30
18 Feb 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).