Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. A price movement of 56 could occur if the released value is > 0.9%.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Feb 00:30	17 Nov 00:30
15 Oct 23:30	16 Sep 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).