Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of EURUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is < 1.9%. A price movement of 28 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 May 22:30	15 Apr 22:30
17 Mar 23:30	16 Oct 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).