Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect USDJPY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 71.43% chance of this. We expect USDJPY to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 2023-05-16 22:30 if the released value is < 0.8%. A price movement of 131 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Apr 22:30	19 Jan 00:30
16 Dec 00:30	14 Oct 23:30
17 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).