Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 66.67% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 0.5%. A price movement of 72 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Aug 22:30	15 Apr 22:30
17 Mar 23:30	14 Dec 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).