Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 75% chance of AUDUSD trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is < -0.5%. A price movement of 11 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Jan 00:30	17 Dec 00:30
18 Nov 00:30	16 Sep 22:30
15 May 22:30	17 Mar 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).