Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 75% chance of NZDUSD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -0.4%. A price movement of 38 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 May 22:30	16 Mar 23:30
17 Dec 00:30	18 Nov 00:30
16 Sep 22:30	14 Aug 22:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).