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This Thursday 23 Apr at 07:30 AM GMT the latest DE Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash number will be released.
If the number is less than than economists’ consensus there is a 75% probability that EURUSD will trend down following the news event.

This probability is based on the last 12 DE Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events, in which 3 of the last 5 events where the actual number was less than than the economist consensus resulted in an down trend of EURUSD.

Here are images of the past events:

Thursday 24 Oct at 07:30 AM GMT:

Thursday 23 May at 07:30 AM GMT:

Thursday 18 Apr at 07:30 AM GMT:

Disclaimer: Past performance may not be indicative of future performance